President Knapp, Dean Brown, distinguished faculty, students, and guests,
史蒂文·納普校長、布朗院長、尊敬的各位老師、同學們、各位來賓：
Thank you for hosting me here today. It is a privilege to be with you to talk about the challenges before us in the world – and how the World Bank Group is working to become as effective as possible in improving the lives of the poor and vulnerable.
感謝各位今天的接待。我很榮幸來到這裡，談一談我們在世界上面臨的挑戰，以及世界銀行集團如何竭盡全力有效地改善貧困和弱勢人群的生活。
When we look across the world today and think about the most pressing issues, the ongoing fiscal uncertainty in the United States greatly concerns us. Our hope is that policymakers resolve these issues soon. This uncertainty, combined with other sources of volatility in the global economy, could do great damage to emerging markets and developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America that have lifted millions of people out of poverty in recent years.
今天，當我們縱觀世界、思考最重要的議題時，圍繞美國財政形勢的不確定性讓我們非常關注。我們希望政策制訂者們能夠儘快解決這個問題。非洲、亞洲、拉丁美洲的新興市場和開發中國家近年有千百萬人擺脫了貧困，但美國財政形勢的不確定性以及導致全球經濟波動的其他一些因素可能給它們帶來損害。
We also can’t help but focus on the upheaval that is taking place in the Middle East. Syria is now in its 30th month of war and the toll has been horrific. More than 100,000 people have been killed, 4 million people have been displaced and another 2 million Syrians have fled and become refugees in neighboring countries, adding great burdens to Jordan and Lebanon in particular. The fighting continues within Syria, and the impact of broken lives and broken economies only grows by the day.
我們也無法不關注中東正在發生的動亂。敘利亞目前已進入戰爭的第30個月，造成的傷亡損失令人驚懼。在戰亂中10多萬人被殺，400萬人流離失所，還有200萬敘利亞人逃離家園，成為鄰國的難民，尤其是給約旦和黎巴嫩帶來了沉重的負擔。敘利亞境內戰亂還在繼續，對生活和經濟造成的破壞日甚一日。
We should not avert our gaze from the Middle East. The World Bank Group has been playing several roles. At times, we are in the backrooms with diplomats and at others we are on the frontlines with humanitarian aid workers. Always, we are working with governments, or companies, or civil society groups to help build strong and sustainable foundations for development. This supports the livelihoods of millions of people in the Middle East, and billions more around the world, who aspire to good jobs, a good education, and access to quality health care.
我們不應對中東局勢視而不見。世界銀行集團中東發揮著多種作用。有時候，我們同外交官和其他人商談於密室，有時候我們同人道主義援助人員戰鬥在前線。我們總是在和政府、或者和企業、或者和民間團體協力合作，為發展事業建造牢固和可持續的基礎。這些工作支援著中東千百萬人民乃至全世界數十億人的生計——他們都希望有良好的工作、良好的教育和優質的醫療保健。
A critical part of our work is in countries emerging from conflict, affected by conflict, or stuck in a persistent state of fragility. As we know all too well, when a country remains in a long state of fragility, conflict often erupts. The World Bank Group and the wider global community need to confront the complex institutional and social challenges in these fragile states, because the cost of inaction is high and the reward of well-designed interventions is great. When we have the opportunity to build institutions, infrastructure, and human capacity in fragile states, or when we can put together a deal that brings in desperately needed private sector investment, we must seize it. When we fail to help countries develop in a way that is inclusive or fail to help countries build strong governance, we are all affected by the result, which is often a country engulfed in flames, as is Syria today.
我們工作中非常重要的一部分是在剛結束衝突、受衝突影響或者長期陷於脆弱狀況的國家。眾所周知，當一個國家長期處於脆弱狀況時，衝突往往一觸即發。世界銀行集團乃至國際社會需要在這些脆弱國家直面複雜的制度和社會挑戰，原因是無所事事的代價高昂，而設計周密的干預措施則收效巨大。當我們有機會在脆弱國家進行制度、基礎設施和能力建設時，或者當我們能夠達成一項協議引進急需的私營部門投資時，我們必須抓住機遇。當我們未能幫助國家實現包容性發展時，或者未能幫助國家建立強有力的治理結構時，其後果會影響所有人——往往是一個國家陷入戰火，就像今天的敘利亞。
Drivers of conflict
衝突的驅動因素
In the Middle East, most of the countries experienced relatively strong growth of 4 to 5 percent a year in the decade before the Arab Spring. Yet serious problems were lurking below the surface. An increasingly educated young middle class was frustrated that the few available jobs were reserved for those with more connections than talent. The private sector operated by earning privileges from the state, leading to a form of crony capitalism that only helped a few, and undermined exports and jobs.
在中東，大多數國家在阿拉伯之春之前的10年都經歷過4%或5%的相對強勁增長。然而，外表下隱藏著嚴重的問題。年輕的中間階層受教育程度越來越高，令他們沮喪的是稀少的就業機會都留給了那些有關係而不是有才能的人。私營部門的運作要依靠政府提供的特權，形成一種只有利於少數人的裙帶資本主義，對出口和就業造成破壞。
The inequities – and the anger – filtered even to the very young. When a million people poured into Tahrir Square in Cairo in 2011 to protest their government, the children of the protesters held protests of their own in classrooms. They demanded better instruction. This is what happens when prosperity is reserved for a select few. All of those left out feel deeply, the burn of inequity.
不平等和憤怒甚至滲透到少年兒童中。2011年當100萬人湧入開羅的解放廣場抗議政府的時候，抗議者的孩子們也在他們自己的教室舉行抗議活動。他們要求改進教學。當繁榮有選擇地保留給少數人，這就是結果。所有那些被遺漏的人都深感到不公平的傷害。
The ongoing crises have left many Middle Eastern countries with a triple challenge. First is restoring macroeconomic stability; second is reforming their economies to meet the high expectations of the people who marched in the streets; and third is managing the transition to new constitutions and more open, contested, multiparty elections. These challenges would be daunting for any single country. But they have all come together in one region. That makes it all the more important for the international community to marshal its resources to support those brave women and men who risked their lives to demand the basic human dignity that is their due.
目前的危機令眾多中東國家面臨三重挑戰。第一是恢復巨集觀經濟穩定;第二是改革經濟以滿足上街抗議的人民的期望;第三是管理好向新憲法和更公開的、有爭議的、多黨制的選舉過渡。這些挑戰對於任何一個國家都是巨大的，但三重挑戰同時降臨一個地區，就使得國際社會集結資源來援助這些冒著生命危險要求得到應得的基本人類尊嚴的勇敢男女們顯得愈發重要。