摘要
本文在闡述巨集觀經濟評價的理論依據以及在總結巨集觀經濟評價方法的基礎上，借鑑計量經濟模型法，圍繞中國巨集觀經濟分析和預測中的模型、方法等方面，做了1些研究工作，主要內容如下：
第1章，前言，這1部分主要是對經濟模型應用及中國近年來經濟執行的綜述；
第2章，聯立方程模型，這1部分主要是對聯立方程模型及其擬合、情景分析的介紹；
第3章，建立1個簡單的中國巨集觀經濟聯立方程模型，這1部分在借鑑了新凱恩斯主義經濟理論和其它經濟理論的基礎上，結合我國當前經濟體制過渡期的某些特點建立了1個由3個方程構成的聯立方程模型，得出了我國的`總消費與總投資比例；再進1步研究消費與投資，建立6個方程。對03年、04年進行模擬分析，再對07年經濟進行預測；
第4章，根據前幾個部分所得出的結果給出政策建議。由於我國的貨幣政策對實體經濟的有效性較弱，因此應繼續努力推進貨幣政策執行機制改革，我國的財政政策在擴大國內需求方面在相當長的時間內還應該繼續實施。
關鍵詞:巨集觀經濟政策；聯立方程模型；模擬分析
Abstract
In this paper, we present the evaluation of macroeconomic theory and conclude macroeconomic evaluation method on the basis of from the econometric model, centering on Chinas macroeconomic analysis and forecasting models, methods, etc. We have done some research work, as follows:
The first chapter, the preamble, we summarize the economic model and the Chinese economy in recent years;
Chapter II, simultaneous equations models, we introduce the couplet model fitting, Scenario Analysis presentation;
Chapter III, we create a simple macro-economic model of simultaneous equations. This part on the basis of the new Keynesian economic theory and other economic theory and connecting to some characteristics of Chinas current economic structure of the transition period, we establish three equations form of simultaneous equations model, and come to our total consumption and total investment ratio; further studying consumption and investment, the establishment of six equation. We simulate and analyze the economic in 2003 and in 2004, then predict it in 2007;
Chapter IV, according to the conclusions of several former parts, I give some policy recommendations. Since Chinas monetary policy to the real economy weaker effectiveness, it should continue to make efforts to promote the operating mechanism of monetary policy reform; and it should continue to actualize Chinas financial policy to expand domestic demand in a fairly long period of time.
Keywords: macroeconomic policy; simultaneous equations models; simulation