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German macroprudential reforms——Beware Teutonic caution
德國的巨集觀審慎改革：謹防日耳曼式謹小慎微
The Bundesbank should not exert its new clout toozealously
德國央行新令牌在握，切莫肆意呼風喚雨
THE European Central Bank (ECB) decided a year ago to hold this week’s monetary-policymeeting in Barcelona, but the timing turned out to be perfect. Spain is in the crosshairs of themarkets, not least because of budgetary overruns by regional governments such as Catalonia’ the contrasting economic fortunes of beaten-up Spain, where the jobless rate has reached24%, and resilient Germany, where it is below 6%, exemplify the difficulty of finding the rightmonetary policy in a currency union of 17 members.
歐洲中央銀行(ECB)早在一年前就決定了將於本週在巴塞羅那召開貨幣政策會議，現今看來，會議召開的恰是時候。現在的西班牙正處在市場的風口浪尖，特別是因為加泰羅尼亞等自治區政府的預算超支才導致了西班牙到了這般田地。同德國相比，西班牙經濟死氣沉沉，失業率飆升至24%;德國經濟穩步反彈，失業率則低於6%。如此鮮明的對比恰也印證了，在這個由17名成員組成的貨幣區內製定出一項正確的貨幣政策確實不易。
The ECB’s meeting on May 3rd (after The Economist went to press) was not expected tochange its monetary stance. Behind the scenes, however, there are acute tensions within its23-strong governing council, made up of six board members and the heads of the 17 nationalcentral banks. In particular Jens Weidmann, the president of the powerful GermanBundesbank, opposed the decision to cut interest rates to 1% in December, and frets aboutthe adequacy of the collateral against which the ECB has lent so much money to banks inrecent months.
貨幣政策會議在本期《經濟學人》付梓之際尚未召開。預計歐洲央行不會在5月3日召開的會議上改變其貨幣政策。然而在幕後，各委員的意見卻是針鋒相對;歐洲央行管理委員會共由6名歐洲中央銀行執行委員會成員和17名歐元區成員國央行行長組成，在這23人的委員會中，唯獨德國聯邦銀行行長權利較大，而最為不滿的人也正是他。早在去年12月，他就曾反對歐洲央行將利率下調至1%的決議，近幾個月來，銀行頻頻以抵押物換取歐洲央行貸款，更是引起了魏德曼對歐洲央行所持鉅額資金抵押品的堪憂。
Among other things Germany’s top central banker wants to avoid a home replay of the creditand property boom whose excesses have been so harmful in Spain. Loose monetary policymakes him nervous about the possibility of a property bubble in Germany. After a long periodwhen house prices fell and then stagnated, they have picked up in the past couple of years(see chart). Homebuilding orders are up by a fifth on a year ago.
超額的信貸和過度繁榮房地產已經令西班牙元氣大傷，德國央行行長也是極力避免在這兩個領域步入其後塵。寬鬆的貨幣政策令魏德曼惴惴不安，唯恐低息環境滋生德國房地產泡沫。德國房價曾一度下跌，經過了漫長的蕭條期後，終於在過去的幾年裡開始攀升(見上圖)。房地產開發訂單在一年前更是提升了五分之一。
Such anxiety looks premature: house-price rises represent a thawing in the propertypermafrost rather than a market on fire. But if Mr Weidmann is minded to take pre-emptiveaction, he will soon have the means to do so. At present the Bundesbank can preach aboutrisks to financial stability but it cannot impose counter-measures such as setting highercapital requirements for banks or putting constraints on specific types of lending such asmortgages. The authority for implementing these steps lies with BaFin, Germany’s banksupervisor (which is assisted on the ground by Bundesbank staff).
魏德曼的焦躁之態未免有點操之過急：房價攀升僅表示冰凍的房地產市場正逐步回暖，而非過熱。但是，若魏德曼先生有先發制人之意，他不久就會拿到行事之器。聯邦銀行目前尚可大肆鼓吹金融穩定性的危險，但卻不能將對抗措施強加於人——如調高銀行的資本要求，或限制抵押貸款等特定貸款專案。上述措施能否順利實施，取決於德國聯邦金融監管局(BaFin)。而在實際操作中，這個德國的銀行監管機構卻是由聯邦銀行員工協助運轉。
This will change under new proposals to set up a joint committee, which will haverepresentatives from the finance ministry and BaFin, but which will give the Bundesbank theleading role and enable it to push through binding directives. The legislation won’t come intoforce until next year, but since it is designed to strengthen his hand, Mr Weidmann wouldprobably be able to get his own way before then.
然而，建議成立聯合委員會的新提案一經提出，形勢又將大有不同。要成立聯合委員會，須有財政部和監管局(BaFin)的代表參與;監管局(BaFin)代表加入委員會後必定會將大權遞交至聯邦銀行手中，讓提案突破約束指令順利通過。可立法明年才會生效，但鑑於立法旨在堅固魏德曼的權力，魏先生也有可能在立法生效前為所欲為。
The reform is part of a general move to add “macroprudential” instruments to the toolkit ofcentral banks, allowing them to choke off credit excesses while monetary policy is set for theeconomy as a whole. If anything, Germany is treading less far down this path than some othercountries—in Britain, for example, the Bank of England will call the shots through a powerfulnew Financial Policy Committee, which has already started work. Such powers should beparticularly useful in the euro area, providing countries with a national lever to pull if their banksare getting too festive (though Spain’s pre-crisis policy of “dynamic provisioning”, designed toget local banks to set aside more provisions in the good times, cautions against investing toomuch hope in macroprudential tools).
歐元區各大央行銀行欲將“巨集觀審慎”工具納入自己的政策工具包，上述改革不過是銀行擴充工具包大行動的一部分而已。這樣一來，一旦歐洲央行制定的貨幣政策適合於整個歐元區，各成員國央行銀行便可用它來抑制信貸超額。德國的改革遠不如其他國家進行的徹底，舉英國為例，英國央行就已藉助強大的新金融政策委員會開始巨集觀審慎監管。西班牙對過多寄希望於巨集觀審慎手段持謹慎態度，特意制定了一項“動態準備金”預防制度，該制度要求地方銀行在經濟形勢大好時大量計提準備金。儘管如此，在歐元區使用“巨集觀審慎”還是尤為有效，歐元區國家可在信貸過熱時，利用這一操縱槓桿對銀行進行控制。
But in the current climate there is also the danger that such regulations may be used in biggereconomies to grab back power from the ECB. By reducing credit availability national centralbanks can contravene the euro zone’s wider monetary stance. Speaking in New York in lateApril Mr Weidmann said that if monetary policy becomes too expansionary for his homecountry, “Germany has to deal with this using other, national instruments.” If Mr Weidmanndoes use his new powers overzealously that could dash one of the few remaining hopes for thehard-hit peripheral economies: a strong recovery in the euro area, led by Germany.
然而就目前形勢而言，更大的經濟體為了從歐洲央行手中奪回更多權力，可能會採用“動態準備金”政策。而削減各成員國央行的信貸可獲量又有違歐元區的整體貨幣政策。魏德曼先生上個月在紐約表示，如果歐洲央行的貨幣政策對德國而言過於寬鬆，“德國將不得不運用其他國家政策工具來抵消影響。” 歐元區邊緣經濟體飽受摧殘，寄希冀於德國，期待德國能領導歐元區強勢反彈。如果魏德曼真用新權力呼風喚雨，則會將這些經濟體推向絕望深淵。